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Comment and Environment

An early-warning system for climate 'tipping points' is an awful idea

Improving our understanding of sudden climate shifts is welcome. But framing this as creating an "early-warning system" is wrong on so many levels it is hard to know where to begin, says Bill McGuire

By Bill Mcguire

19 March 2025

New Scientist. Science news and long reads from expert journalists, covering developments in science, technology, health and the environment on the website and the magazine.

Elaine Knox

Science funding is rarely a bad thing, and when it goes towards boosting our knowledge of the greatest threat to humanity, it has to be seen as a positive. So, the £81 million slated recently by the UK Advanced Research & Invention Agency to improve understanding of highly dangerous climate “tipping points” is most welcome. The manner in which the giveaway is framed, however, really isn’t.

According to the agency, the funding will support the creation of an early-warning system (EWS) that will “confidently predict when a system will tip”, alongside pinning down the timing of the tipping and the consequences.…

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